Pedro José Martínez Alanis
Economist with over 12 years of experience focused on the analysis and monitoring of the Mexican economy, collaborating with the federal government and key international organizations, including the IDB, World Bank, and UNDP.
My work combines conjunctural macroeconomic analysis with empirical microeconomic research, leveraging firm-level data (economic censuses, administrative records) to estimate productivity, market power, and resource allocation.
I have extensive experience in the design and evaluation of industrial public policies, generating evidence to inform strategic documents and support the Bank’s financial and non-financial operations in the country. My recent analysis has focused on the determinants of firm participation in Global Value Chains and the opportunities of the nearshoring phenomenon for Mexico and the region.
This expertise is grounded in a strong academic foundation, including two Master’s degrees in Economics (El Colegio de México, Western University) and doctoral studies with a specialization in quantitative methods.
Experience in the World Bank Group: 4 years and 7 month
July’24 - June’25 : International consultant for the project Effective domestic revenue mobilization for inclusive growth to estimate a micro simulation model of taxes and other fiscal policy tools for the Fiscal Policy and Analysis Directorate of the Ministry of Public Finance of Guatemala.
Jun’23-June’24 : Research Associate to estimate the potential exports and investments derived from the nearshoring in Latin America. Consultancy for LAC Creating Markets Advisory IFC, based in Mexico city. Under the team leadership of Mayra Alfaro de Morán and Carlos Zafra and Samuel Rosenow. I provided an analytical framework to estimate nearshoring opportunities in Mexico, Central American countries, Colombia and Peru.
Feb’21-Feb’23 : Core Team Member of the Firm-level Adoption of Technology (FAT) project, consultant based in Mexico city. Under the vision and leadership of Xavier Cirera, Marcio Cruz and Diego Comin, I supported through the implementation of the Firm-level Adoption of Technology (FAT) survey in developing countries, preparation of the questionnaire, quality checks, data management and data analysis for the NBER WP paper “Anatomy of Technology in the Firm” and in the flagship report Bridging the Technological Divide: Technology Adoption by Firms in Developing Countries. This involved working with firm-level data.
Jul’07-Feb’08: Research Assistant for the Enterprise Analysis Unit, IFC. Performing empirical research on enterprise analysis. Main research topics included International Trade and its impact on Productivity, Innovation and Technology on Indian firms, and country profile analysis for 14 African and 15 Latin American countries based on WB/IFC enterprise surveys. Databases: Compustat, WITS-Comtrade, WB/IFC enterprise surveys, WDI, USITC. This role involved data management and understanding of data sources.
Experience in the Mexican government: 3 years and 8 months
Feb’21-May’23 : Chief Economist, National Minimum Wage Commission. I coordinated a monthly economic outlook report on the Mexican economy to keep track of labor market dynamics, purchasing power of wages, impact of the minimum wage, GDP, industrial activity, inflation expectations, informality, monetary and fiscal policies, exchange rates, balance of payments, and perspectives on main trading partners. For annual reports 2021 and 2022, I contributed with empirical strategies to evaluate the impact of Covid-19 in the female labor participation in Mexico, to estimate the gender wage gap during the Covid-19 pandemic, to evaluate the employment program Jovenes construyendo el futuro in the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic, to evaluate the impact of the minimum wage increase in the gender wage gap in Mexico. Also, empirical analysis and estimation of market power in manufacturing industries, and estimation of the pass-through of wages in production prices using confidential manufacturing firm-level data in a context of high inflation. This involved working with administrative records and firm-level data.
Aug’19-Nov’20 : Chief of Economic Advisors, Ministry of Economy, Mexico. I provided intellectual leadership contributing to the design, evaluation, coordination and implementation of main public policies in Mexico by Vice Minister of Industry, Commerce and Competitiveness, Ernesto Acevedo. For example, a New Industrial Policy; a new relocation strategy (nearshoring) of global value chains under the T-MEC; public policy recommendations to respond to the economic and health crisis in the aftermath of the Covid-19 outbreaks and coordinating the General Economic Incidence Group to monitor the Mexican economy with high-frequency data (persons, goods and financial markets).
Experience in the Inter-American Development Bank: 6 years and 4 months
Aug’13-Apr’14: Research Assistant for the Vice Presidency for Sector and Knowledge (VPS) based in Mexico city. Under the leadership of Santiago Levy, I performed empirical research for the project “Productividad, informalidad, ilegalidad y tamaño de los establecimientos” using micro data from Mexican Economic Census 1998, 2003 and 2008. This consultancy contributed to the IDB flagship report Under-Rewarded Efforts: The Elusive Quest for Prosperity in Mexico This involved working with census data.
Sep’11-Jun’12: Research Assistant for CID/CME based in Mexico city. Under the direction of J. Ernesto López-Córdova, we analyze the effects of financial access in manufacturing, retail and services sectors in Mexico, and its impact on aggregate productivity. Using establishment level data from the economic census and with emphasis on the regional allocation of the factors, we seek to contribute to the IDB’s policy dialogue with federal states in Mexico. Empirical research project: “Productividad, cambio estructural y acceso al financiamiento en México”. This involved working with census data.
Feb’10-Aug’11: Research Assistant for VPS based in Mexico city. Under the leadership of Santiago Levy and the direction of Chang-tai Hsieh, I was a research assistant to understand to what extent Mexico is poor because resources are used inefficiently within the country using establishment level data from the Mexican Economic Census (1999-2004-2009). Applying the Hsieh-Klenow (QJE, 2009) model to the Mexican economy, we seek to answer how the misallocation of inputs across firms and industries is related to informality and aggregate total factor productivity. This involved working with census data.
Jul’09-Oct’09: Research Assistant for EDU/SCL based in Mexico city. As part of the project Aligning Learning Incentives, I was in charge of following up each one of 50 thousand students in the program across 88 schools in Mexico. For each student, I computed her corresponding incentive based on a standardized test on mathematics. Along this consultancy was developed an ado-file in STATA: pmatch.ado. This program identifies two full names under misspelling and estimates the likelihood of matching. This involved data management.
Sep’08-May’09: Research Assistant for RES/VPS based in Mexico city. Research assistant for the project “Social security and resource misallocation in Mexico” under the direction of Chang-Tai Hsieh. As part of the project “Understanding productivity levels, dispersion and growth in Latin America and Caribbean industries” I analyzed regional resource misallocation in Mexico following the Hsieh-Klenow model. Databases: Micro level data from the Mexican Economic Census 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2004, INEGI. This involved working with census data.
Apr’08-Jul’08: Research Assistant for RES/VPS based in Washington, DC. Under the direction of Carmen Pagés-Serra and using Mexican Economic Census 1989, 1994, 1999 and 2004, INEGI, I estimated productivity measures (growth accounting) by firm size, state and selected sectors; and its decomposition by shift & share analysis. Under the leadership of Santiago Levy Algazi I explored the relationship between social programs, informality and economic growth in Mexico. This involved working with census data.
Sep’05-Jun’07: Research Fellow for the Integration and Trade Department, based in Washington, DC. Performing empirical research in trade and economic integration. Research topics include Trade and Cooperation Agreements, China’s impact and policy implications for the Mexican economy, and sectorial notes on trade for Costa Rica, Honduras and Mexico. Participation in main IDB initiatives: Trade diversification and Building Opportunities for the Majority. All research activities include econometric estimation and database handling through STATA programming. Databases: Broad expertise working with large datasets (WITS-Comtrade, WDI, DOT/IMF) and familiarized with national household surveys in Latin America (MECOVI, EQxIS). Specialist in the Economic Census and National Household Surveys of Mexico. This demonstrates experience with various data sources.
Experience in the United Nations Development Programme
Winter’09 : Consultancy for RBLAC. Research Assistant on the empirical application of the Human Development Index adjusted by inequality under the leadership of Luis Felipe López-Calva, Sabina Alkire and James E. Foster. Applying the methodology developed Foster, López-Calva, Szekely (J Hum Dev, 2005) and using Demographic and Health Surveys for selected countries (Egypt, India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Pakistan), I contributed to the technical report on multidimensional poverty and inequality for the Human Development Report 2010. This involved data analysis.
Academic Experience: 2 years
Summer’24 - Winter’25 : Research Associate for the research project “Productivity growth in Mexico” by Professors Chang-Tai Hsieh and Esteban Rossi-Hansberg. I provided empirical inputs from Mexican economic census 1999-2019, in particular using confidential information I coded business group names using the Levenshtein Edit Distance and to measure market concentration and diversification at product-industry level. University of Chicago. This involved working with census data.
Jan’16-Mar’17 : Research Assistant for the research project “on the identification of production functions and productivity estimation with David Rivers & Salvador Navarro”. Western University, Ontario, Canada. This focused on productivity estimation.
Summer’11 : National Bureau of Economic Research. Research Assistant based in Mexico for Chang-Tai Hsieh. I provided empirical inputs (data tabulations, graphs, and other statistical output) using firm-level data from Mexican economic censuses 1998, 2003, and 2008. Reference: Hsieh, Chang-Tai, and Peter J. Klenow. “The life cycle of plants in India and Mexico.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 129.3 (2014): 1035-1084. This involved working with census data.
Academic formation
2018 : Master in Economics, Western University, London Ontario, Canada
2014-2018 : PhD studies in Economics, Western University, London Ontario, Canada. Specialized in empirical industrial organization, international trade and labor markets.
2012-2013 : PhD studies in Economics, University of California in Davis, USA.
2002-2004 : Master in Economics, El Colegio de México, Mexico City, Mexico. Specialized in quantitative and econometric methods.
1998-2002 : B.A. in Economics, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico City, Mexico.
Publications and works in progress
2025 : Arias Vazquez, F.J; Choudhary, R; and Martínez Alanis, P.J. “Welfare Analysis of a Zero VAT Rate versus Cash Transfers in Mexico”. Working Paper. This analysis compares the welfare implications of a zero VAT rate policy on basic goods against a direct cash transfer program. Using data from Mexico’s 2022 National Income and Expenditure Household Survey (ENIGH), the model estimates a demand system for low- and high-income households to recover indirect utility functions. The note identifies the set of cash transfer amounts and distributional weights that would make the policy switch welfare-enhancing for society by offsetting efficiency losses.
2024 : Martínez Alanis, P.J., Samuel Rosenow, and Carlos Zafra “Nearshoring Opportunities in Latin America”, Mimeo. This note lays out the analytical framework used to identify nearshoring potential in Mexico, Central American countries , Colombia and Peru.
2021 : El Efecto del Programa “Jóvenes Construyendo el Futuro (JCF)” durante la Pandemia, Conasami This paper evaluates the employment program JCF. On average, program graduates have twice as likely to find a job compared to those not in the program (46.2% vs 23.6%) during the Covid-19 pandemic. This involved data analysis.
2020 : Martínez Alanis, P.J. “Growth constraints in the Mexican manufacturing establishments”, Mimeo. Establishments over 20 years of age in Mexico stop growing and their productivity stagnates compared to younger establishments (Hsieh-Klenow, 2014). What are the factors that limit the growth of manufacturing establishments in Mexico? This paper analyzes the effect of distortions or frictions in the allocation of capital on the growth profile of Mexican manufacturing establishments. This involved empirical analysis.
2012 : Martínez Alanis, P.J.”Distorsiones regionales en la asignación de recursos y productividad de las manufacturas en México”, Estudios Económicos 2012. This paper decomposes the regional effects of resource misallocation on aggregate total factor productivity (TFP), as a variant of the Hsieh-Klenow (2009) model. Using establishment level data from the 2004 Mexican Economic Census, I calculate the potential regional TFP gains in Manufacturing.
Computer skills: STATA, Jupyter, R, Julia, Python.These are relevant for data management and data analysis.
Language skills: Spanish, English, French B2.